The race to dominate space: should the UAE join?

The UAE recently celebrated sending its first man into space; but the race to get to space and increasingly the race to use space technology as a tool in promoting national interests and security started sixty years ago. This article examines who are the leading actors, what technology is deployed, how this affects national interests and security, how space is increasingly deployed in hybrid warfare, and asks, “What role or strategy should the UAE adopt?”

Early space exploration was undertaken in the late 1950s by both the United States and the USSR. The term ‘space race’ was coined in this context, as each country attempted to outperform the other in terms of achievement. This race was used as a proxy to demonstrate scientific excellence, power and as a ‘flagship’ for the supremacy of the two respective political systems. 

Over the sixty years since man began space exploration, the pace of change has been relentless. Like many areas of technology, the cost of entry fell dramatically, allowing the industry to open up to commercial players and more significantly, allowing other countries to join the US and Russia in space exploration. However, with this opening up come new challenges and improvements in technology that have expanded the possible uses of space for military and espionage purposes. 

A brief overview of the main areas in which space technology is used illustrates the potential for state actors to use the technology: space-based intelligence gathering; surveillance and reconnaissance; command and control of forces worldwide; and jamming, spoofing, energy weapons and cyber space attacks.

What concerns military analysts is the possibility for adversaries or competitors, either directly or through a proxy, to gather intelligence or inflict serious harm. This can happen on a large scale and in a way that is relatively easy implement, but where detection and identification can be difficult. Space is quickly becoming a key component in hybrid warfare; as noted by Dr. Patrick J. Cullen and Erik Reichborn-Kjennerud in 2017. Hybrid warfare – conducted by state or non-state actors – is typically tailored to remain below obvious detection and response thresholds, and often relies on the speed, volume and ubiquity of digital technology that characterizes the present information age. The integration of space and cyber domain causes security risks that are not restricted to military installations, everyday activities include: weather forecasting, navigation, time stamping of ATM transactions, mobile communication, and theft of personal data.

It is the threat to a nation’s military and security infrastructure that most concerns military strategists; examples of which include: disruption to battle field communications, intelligence surveillance, missile warning systems, position navigation and timing; satellite command and control, and space launches. As nations become more sophisticated in their use of space technology, there is a fear that one state could develop and use the capability to launch a weapon, either into space towards another satellite or to attack a ground target. 

Actions of this nature could cripple a state’s ability to detect an attack, or control and communicate with its force should it need to defend itself. The US Defence Intelligence Agency noted in their report “Challenges to Security in Space” published in January 2019, that early on, the world was alert to the potential threat, and drew up a treaty to limit such actions: the 1967 “Outer Space Treaty” bans the stationing of weapons of mass destruction (WMD) in outer space, prohibits military activities on celestial bodies, and details legally binding rules governing the peaceful exploration and use of space. 109 countries are parties to the treaty, while another 23 have signed but not yet ratified. The treaty, however, does not prohibit the launching of ballistic missiles, which could be armed with WMD warheads. The treaty repeatedly emphasizes that space is to be used for peaceful purposes, leading some analysts to conclude that the treaty could broadly be interpreted as prohibiting all types of weapons systems, not just WMD, in outer space.

There is increasing concern about security in space and the UN is moving towards recognizing the reality of advancement in space technology and the recognition that space is a warfighting domain. NATO already announced it considers space a “warfighting domain” at the NATO Leaders Summit, held in London 3-4 December 2019. Kyle Mizokami believes the landmark announcement cemented the notion that, like the air, land, and sea domains, space is a potential battlefield whose control is vital in a future conflict. 

Of particular interest for the UAE is the emergence of Iran as a space actor. In April 2019 the Centre for Strategic and International Studies published “Space Threat Assessment 2019” and noted that although Iran is still developing their space industry, there have been developments in recent years, the authors note: “The U.S. intelligence community has concluded that Iran’s continued work to develop space launch vehicles will shorten the timeline to create a successful ICBM since the two systems use similar technologies;” and “Iran has an extensive record of using electronic forms of attack against space systems, including uplink jamming, downlink jamming, and spoofing.” Such capability, from a country that is a clear threat to the GCC region, should be of concern to the UAE.

Without appropriate strategies in place, our national interests are likely to be severely damaged by the type of attack or disruption caused by a foreign aggressor using space technology. Given that countries such as Iran are developing such capability, it is imperative that we continue to be an investor in space technology, develop our human capital and enter into partnerships with leading countries such as the US. By developing such a capability, we are contributing to regional peace – our ability to react is a deterrent to Iran.

The UAE has made significant progress in developing its space industry, most recently demonstrated by being the first Arab country to send a man into the International Space Station (ISS) and the first Arab country to have a sustainable astronaut program. What is most important now is for the country to continue to invest and develop expertise to serve the interests of the state. 

There are further benefits associated with investing in space. It creates a favourable and positive image for the country and places us in a select group of nations who have acquired the required technical knowledge and expertise. Furthermore, if boosts national morale, encouraging our youth to explore career options in STEM (Science, Technology, Engineering, Math).  It also supports cooperation in space with other space-faring nations, enabling knowledge transfer.

Finally,  it stimulates demand and creates opportunities for the economy in terms of the supply chain and possible spin-offs from the R&D oriented towards space exploration.