Iran's Future Under the “Crusader”

Iranian policy has been clearly defined since the Islamic Revolution and Iranian politicians do not deviate from that policy. The Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, is in control of all matters and especially Iran's foreign policy and the Iranian president manages internal affairs. Therefore, the election of the new Iranian president, should not be interpreted or directly indicate a softening of Iran’s policy of expanding its regional influence and strategic depth. However, the question that remains is: Could the effect of Ebrahim Raisi’s election be a shift in Iran’s foreign policies to become even more conservative and obstinate?

Ebrahim Raisi is one of the most important figures in the conservative religious movement in Iran and has a close personal relationship with the Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who is also his mentor. Ebrahim Raisi is considered a leading figure of the judiciary and has occupied several positions in the Judiciary Department, starting as a public prosecutor in Tehran before he assuming the leading position of the judiciary. In these roles he has been accused by Amnesty International of crimes against humanity because his name was linked to the death sentences given to thousands of political prisoners in 1988. He was a judge and member of the so called "death commission" and is known for inflicting the most severe punishments on opponents of the Iranian revolution.

Ebrahim Raisi announced that he would run as an independent candidate for election as the eighth president of Iran since the 1979 Iranian Islamic Revolution.  During his election campaign, he portrayed himself as a 'Crusader' against corruption and focused on helping the Iranian people overcome poverty, economic recovery, and providing job opportunities for Iranian youth. On 19 June 2021 he won 18 of the 28 million votes cast and succeeds the outgoing Reformist President, Hassan Rouhani, for a four-year term of office. 

Analysts and observers fully expect that Ebrahim Raisi will follow the policies directed by the Supreme Leader. In fact, many also expect that he will be the next Supreme Leader. Therefore, the net result of the election constitutes a tilt in the internal balance of power in Iran in favour of the anti-Western clerics.  

As a result, Ebrahim Raisi is unpopular in the West and the United States of America. Israel has also warned of the danger that electing such Iranian conservatives has to international security.  Many Western and American media outlets have also stated that Ebrahim Raisi was elected through an unfair process and describe him as a hardliner who supports extremist perspectives.

Nevertheless, Ebrahim Raisi faces significant challenges that he will need to address with the international community. Particularly with regards to Iran’s economy which is suffering from a set of sanctions that have led to the collapse of its economy. As well as negotiating a resolution to the “nuclear issue” and in reforming relations with the Arab Gulf states and other countries of the region.

Ebrahim Raisi's Position on the “Nuclear Issue”

Analysts believe there will not be a radical change in Iran's foreign policies and especially its position on the “nuclear issue”. Yet Ebrahim Raisi will make resolving the “nuclear issue” a top priority because this will contribute to the lifting US sanctions on Iran, especially on the oil and banking sectors. 

However, on the one hand, he has made assurances that Iran would not engage in 'attritional' negotiations, stressed that effective negotiations must be achieved in this issue and requested that America returns to the nuclear agreement. On the other hand, he has also stressed that Iran would not make any concessions and has refused to link any other external issues, such as negotiating the ballistic missile programme or Iran's regional policies in the region, to the “nuclear issue”.

Many major powers, especially America and Western powers, have warned against Ebrahim Raisi invoking such complications before negotiations on the “nuclear issue”. Although, the assessment is that he will try to impose a ‘fait accompli’ on the international community because of his determination to move forward with the nuclear programme, leveraging support from Iran's allies, Russia and China. 

The Future of Iranian Relations with the Gulf and Arab Countries under his Presidency

The major powers are waiting to see if Iran's new political leadership will he make any concessions in the negotiations on the “nuclear issue”?  If Ebrahim Raisi does not deal cautiously with the “nuclear issue” and lessen the related tensions then the Arab Gulf states, the Arab states in the region and several major international powers, such as the United States of America, will not hesitate to consider Iran’s possession of nuclear weapons a major risk and a threat to international peace and security in the Arab region and to the world.

Ebrahim Raisi, at the regional and Arab levels, has made one of the priorities of Iranian policy to improve relations with its neighbours. He made statements about overcoming all the obstacles and difficulties in communicating with Saudi Arabia and reopening diplomatic relations, including the reopening of embassies in Saudi Arabia and Iran. Yet he has also called on Saudi Arabia to stop its military and political interference in Yemen. It is also likely that he will maintain Iran's approach of interfering in the affairs of Arab countries (Lebanon, Yemen, Syria, and Iraq) through proxies and the supply of arms in the region.

Naturally, the close relationship between the Gulf states and America has a significant influence on the nature of the relationship between the Gulf states and Iran. This combined with the Gulf states categorically opposing Iran's continual threats to their security through the “nuclear issue”, ballistic missiles and drones that support the Houthis in Yemen, a major threat to Saudi Arabia in particular, means that relations during Ebrahim Raisi's term are expected to be tense. This is likely because the approach taken by Iranian conservative presidents has always been characterized by obstinacy, rigidity, and intransigence, especially when dealing with the Gulf countries.

Arab Gulf leaders remain concerned about this Iranian intransigence, especially on the controversial issue of the Iranian nuclear programme and Ebrahim Raisi’s election does not bode a quick solution. This is compounded by the United States considering Ebrahim Raisi to be one of the most extremist Iranian presidents. 

As for Iran’s relations with the rest of the Arab countries during Raisi's term? Iran will not stop interfering in the affairs of countries such as Syria, Lebanon, and Iraq. In addition, Iran is interfering in Palestine through its strong relations with Hamas and Islamic Jihad movement. Iran's actions, especially in Syria, Lebanon, and Palestine, makes these countries a battleground for Iran to confront Israel and the United States of America.

Raisi's view of Iran's Relationship with Russia and China against American Hegemony

Ebrahim Raisi election is likely to strengthen Iran’s international relationships with Russia and China. This is because both countries have significant influence in the world and are in a state of competition with the United States of America and the West. Iran sees this competition as a common interest that would contribute to these three countries confronting, what they perceive as, American and European hegemonial policies in the world. Ebrahim Raisi also believes that Iran's relationships with Russia and China may force the United States of America and Western countries to return to the nuclear agreement and lift the economic sanctions imposed on Iran without any modification to the agreement.

The American decision-makers are convinced that the sanctions imposed on Iran have played a major role in accelerating the rapprochement between China and Iran. The Russian-Chinese-Iranian “alliance” may pose a great danger to the United States of America, and the Biden administration may try to return to negotiations on the Iranian “nuclear issue” with new terms. These international relationships also provide strong support to Iran in the Middle East, changing the rules of the game in the face of, perceived, American hegemony in the region. 

In conclusion, it is worth mentioning that the aligning a hard-line president, like Ebrahim Raisi with an extreme hard line Supreme Leader, like the incumbent, will not affect the already deteriorating economy and negotiations of the nuclear file, but also the economic and political stability of the region and international security. More economic sanction and embargo will be expected in the foreseeable future; hence more deterioration to the economic status of Iran; needless to mention the discontent and antagonism of neighboring countries in the region.